Islam's Astonishing Prophecy of the Siege of Baghdad
Many centuries ago, the Muslim world was making sweeping advancements across many fields of science, architecture, technology, and art under the rule of the Abbasid Caliphate. This era of progress is commonly known today as the "Islamic Golden Age." The caliphate's capital city switched a few times, but under the Abbasids' peak, it was Baghdad, also the capital city of modern-day Iraq. The Islamic Golden Age would see a brutal end in the Mongol conquests of Persia and Mesopotamia. The Mongol Empire under Hulegu Khan would besiege Baghdad before raiding it, committing many atrocities, and killing the Abbasid caliph, Al-Musta'sim.
The siege took place in early 1258. But, the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ, who died in the year 632, unambiguously prophecised it in great detail. Although this may sound unthinkable, the rest of what I will write will explain the opposite, with the prophecy serving as strong evidence for the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ being a messenger of the All-Knowing God.
The Prophecy
The prophecy comes from the Hadith corpus, collections of the sayings and actions of the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ. Sunan Abi Dawud 4306, the main narration for this prophecy, reads:
Narrated Abu Bakrah: "The Messenger of God ﷺ said, 'Some of my people will alight on low-lying ground, which they will call 'Basra,' beside a river called the Tigris over which there is a bridge. Its people will be numerous, and it will be one of the capital cities of immigrants, [or one of the capital cities of Muslims, according to the version of Ibn Yahya, who reported from Abu Ma'mar.] At the end of time, Keturah's descendants will come with broad faces and small eyes, and alight on the riverbank. The town's inhabitants will then separate into three sections, one of which will follow cattle, [live in] the desert, and perish, [although "perish" can also be translated as "disbelieve."] Another...will seek security for themselves and perish. But, a third will put their children behind their backs and fight the invaders, and they will be the martyrs.'"
Dissecting the Prophecy
In short, the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ said the future Muslims would settle near the Tigris, a river passing through parts of the Middle East, in an area called Basra, which would be Islam's capital city at the time. He warned Keturah's physically distinct descendants would attack Basra through the Tigris' banks in a minor sign of the Day of Judgement.
Keturah is a woman mentioned in the Bible as being married to Abraham after his previous wife, Sarah, died. Keturah bore sons who were sent eastward from Isaac, one of Abraham's sons, who was in Canaan (modern-day Palestine) at the time.
The Prophecy's Relation to the Siege of Baghdad
When one connects the dots, it becomes easy to see the prophecy obviously referred to the then-future Mongol siege of Abbasid Baghdad.
As mentioned earlier, Keturah's sons were sent to the "Land of the East." On maps, Mongolia is east of both Canaan (modern-day Palestine) and Arabia, which many interpreted the Land of the East as being and where the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ was from. The justification for interpreting the Land of the East as being Arabia was that Keturah and Hagar, an Egyptian woman married to Abraham and the ancestor of the Arabs, were the same woman, But, this belief has no scriptural basis, so I believe it is likelier that the Land of the East Keturah's sons were sent to was not Arabia, but in fact Mongolia.
Keturah's descendants are also described as having wide faces with relatively small eyes. This invokes the image of a Mongol phenotype, with distinctive wide cheekbones and narrow eyes:
As mentioned earlier, Islam's capital city at the time was Baghdad. Although there was (and still is) a separate city called Basra, the prophecy likely actually referred to the Basra Gate, one of Baghdad's city gates, which was in the Karkh neighbourhood, an entry point for the Mongols. Another part of the prophecy matching with historical records of the Siege of Baghdad was the invaders camping at the Tigris' banks, which the Mongol general Kitbuqa's troops did before entering Karkh.
The Significance of the Prophecy
The prophecy is a very clear proof for Islam. It is not ambiguous or vague at all. In fact, it is very direct in describing the Mongol sack of Baghdad.
Some Islamic prophecies are described as "self-fulfilling" by critics, as they argue the Muslims would try to fulfil prophecies on their own to make them seem more miraculous than they really are. This excuse cannot be applied to this prophecy, as if it were self-fulfilling, the Muslims would have named the entire city "Basra" instead of "Baghdad." It is not like the Muslims could make a Mongol sack just happen, which further proves the prophecy was not "self-fulfilling."
The Authenticity of the Prophecy
The prophecy as found in Sunan Abi Dawud 4306 is often graded as "fair," meaning the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ most likely said it. The authenticity is strengthened much more by the prophecy being in several other independent Hadith collections such as Sahih Ibn Hibban (where it is given the "authentic" label, meaning the Prophet Muhammad ﷺ definitely said it according to the chains of transmission used to verify its authenticity), Musnad Ahmad ibn Hanbal, and Kitab al-Fitan. Even if the authenticity gradings were ignored, the prophecy still definitely existed before the actual Siege of Baghdad, as collections such as Sunan Abi Dawud and Musnad Ahmad ibn Hanbal where the prophecy is recorded were compiled by men who died in the 800s, centuries before the siege that happened in the thirteenth-century.
Overall Conclusion
This prophecy is one of my favourite proofs for Islam, as it is unambiguous and was undeniably centuries before the event it predicted. It is direct enough to avoid being too vague, but still manages to not become a sort of instruction manual for Muslims to self-fulfill their own prophecies, and its inclusion in Hadith compilations existing centuries before the Siege of Baghdad make it so that even Hadith skeptics have to accept the prophecy's existence before the siege. I have been wanting to do a "proving Islam" series on this blog, so this piece may be the first part of that.
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